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Property Crime Trends in Rush Springs: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rush Springs, located in Oklahoma, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable increase from 4 incidents in 2011 to 20 in 2022, representing a 400% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 2,349 to 2,825, a 20.3% increase, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth significantly.
Burglary trends in the city have been volatile. In 2011, there were 2 burglaries, which peaked at 19 in 2018, before decreasing to 4 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.85 in 2011 to 6.84 in 2018, then fell to 1.42 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.09% in 2018 before settling at 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary remains a concern, recent years have seen improvements relative to both population and state-wide occurrences.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown an overall upward trend. From 2 cases in 2011, the number increased to 13 in 2022, with a peak of 24 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.85 in 2011 to 4.60 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures rose from 0% in 2011 to 0.02% in 2022, with a high of 0.04% in 2020. This indicates a growing challenge in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting, which may be linked to economic factors or changes in local policing strategies.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a significant increase over the years. From no reported cases in 2011, the number rose to 3 in 2022, with a peak of 5 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 to 1.06 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0% to 0.03% in 2022, peaking at 0.04% in 2021. This trend suggests an emerging issue with vehicle security that warrants attention from local law enforcement.
Arson incidents have been sporadic in the city. There were no reported cases in most years, with single incidents occurring in 2012, 2018, and 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents in years with arson was approximately 0.36. The city's contribution to state arson cases was significant in these years, reaching 0.15% in 2012, 0.18% in 2018, and 0.19% in 2021. While infrequent, these incidents represent a disproportionate share of state arson cases when they do occur.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between rising property crime rates and increasing population density. As the population density grew from 2,021 per square mile in 2011 to 2,431 in 2022, total property crimes increased. Additionally, the rise in median income from $34,042 in 2013 to $53,815 in 2022 coincided with an overall increase in property crimes, particularly larceny-theft, suggesting that growing affluence may have created more opportunities for theft.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Rush Springs may see a continued increase in overall property crime rates. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the most common property crime, potentially reaching 30-35 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize around 4-5 cases per year, while burglary rates could fluctuate between 5-10 incidents annually, depending on economic conditions and law enforcement strategies.
In conclusion, Rush Springs has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. The disproportionate increase in crime rates compared to population growth, particularly in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The sporadic but significant arson incidents also warrant special attention. As the city continues to grow and prosper, addressing these property crime trends will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
