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Property Crime Trends in Rolling Meadows: A Decade of Fluctuations Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rolling Meadows, a city in Illinois, has experienced notable shifts in property crime rates against the backdrop of population growth. Between 2011 and 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately increasing by 1.78% from 338 to 344 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 8.45%, from 37,755 to 40,947 residents, indicating a complex relationship between demographic changes and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability over the years. In 2011, there were 44 burglaries, which increased to 51 in 2012, representing a 15.91% rise. However, by 2016, burglaries had dramatically decreased to just 12 incidents. The rate then fluctuated, ending at 51 burglaries in 2022, matching the 2012 peak. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.17 in 2011 to 1.25 in 2022, a slight increase of 6.84%. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased substantially from 0.08% in 2011 to 0.31% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate rise compared to statewide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited a general downward trend from 2011 to 2019, followed by a recent uptick. In 2011, there were 290 larceny thefts, which declined to 229 by 2019, a 21.03% decrease. However, by 2022, the number rose to 267, still 7.93% lower than the 2011 figure. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 7.68 in 2011 to 6.52 in 2022, a 15.10% reduction. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts increased from 0.17% in 2011 to 0.26% in 2022, indicating a growing share of this crime type relative to the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an overall increasing trend. In 2011, there were only 4 reported incidents, which rose to 26 in 2022, a substantial 550% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.11 in 2011 to 0.63 in 2022, a 472.73% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose significantly from 0.02% in 2011 to 0.09% in 2022, suggesting a faster increase in this crime type compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but variable. In 2011, there were 2 reported arsons, which fluctuated over the years, ending at 1 incident in 2022, a 50% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.05 in 2011 to 0.02 in 2022, a 60% reduction. However, the city's share of state arsons decreased from 0.22% in 2011 to 0.15% in 2022, indicating a relatively stable proportion of this crime type compared to state levels.
A strong correlation exists between the increase in population density and the rise in motor vehicle thefts. As the population density grew from 6,722 per square mile in 2011 to 7,291 in 2022, motor vehicle thefts increased substantially. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the changing racial demographics and certain crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 67% in 2013 to 60% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 19% to 21% in the same period, there was a corresponding increase in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued increase in motor vehicle thefts, potentially reaching around 40-45 incidents annually. Burglaries may stabilize around 50-55 cases per year, while larceny thefts could see a slight increase to approximately 280-290 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, likely not exceeding 2-3 incidents per year.
In summary, Rolling Meadows has experienced varied property crime trends from 2011 to 2022, with notable increases in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, a decrease followed by a recent uptick in larceny thefts, and relatively stable arson rates. These changes have occurred alongside population growth and shifts in demographic composition, suggesting a complex interplay between socio-economic factors and crime rates. The city's increasing share of state property crimes in several categories indicates a need for targeted crime prevention strategies to address these trends effectively.
