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Property Crime Trends in Rogersville, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rogersville, Missouri, a small but growing community, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 65.57%, from 122 to 42 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 29.81%, from 7,081 to 9,192 residents during the same period.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 17 burglaries reported, which decreased to 11 by 2022, representing a 35.29% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.40 in 2010 to 1.20 in 2022, a 50.15% decrease. Despite this local decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary has become less prevalent within the city, it has decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant downward trend. The number of incidents dropped from 100 in 2010 to 27 in 2022, a 73% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 14.12 to 2.94, a 79.20% reduction. However, the city's contribution to state larceny theft decreased from 0.09% to 0.03% over this period, indicating that the reduction in larceny theft outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable in absolute numbers, with 5 incidents in 2010 and 4 in 2022. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.71 to 0.44, a 38.37% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.04% to 0.02%, suggesting that the city's efforts in curbing this crime have been somewhat more effective than the state average.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, in 2022, one arson case was reported, representing 0.16% of state arson cases. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.11 per 1,000 residents, which is relatively low but warrants continued vigilance.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 1,890 per square mile in 2010 to 2,454 in 2022, a 29.84% increase. During this same period, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 17.23 to 4.57, a 73.48% reduction. This inverse relationship suggests that increased urbanization in this case has not led to higher crime rates, contrary to some common assumptions.
The median income in the city has fluctuated over the years, rising from $58,123 in 2013 to $57,483 in 2022, a modest decrease of 1.10%. Despite this slight decline in median income, property crime rates continued to fall, indicating that income levels may not be a significant factor in the city's crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. By 2029, five years from now, the total number of property crimes is projected to decrease to approximately 30 incidents per year, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent.
In summary, Rogersville has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime statistics over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary, larceny theft, and motor vehicle theft rates, even as the population grew, highlight the effectiveness of local crime prevention strategies. The city's ability to reduce crime rates more rapidly than the state average in most categories is particularly noteworthy. These trends, if maintained, position Rogersville as an increasingly safe community, potentially attracting new residents and businesses in the coming years.
