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Property Crime Trends in Roeland Park, Kansas: A Decade of Shifting Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Roeland Park, a small city in Kansas covering just 1.62 square miles, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 265 in 2010, dropping to 159 in 2020, and then rising to 267 in 2022. This represents a slight overall increase of 0.75% over the 12-year period. During this same timeframe, the population remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 6,517 in 2010 to 6,416 in 2022, a 1.55% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 27 burglaries, which decreased to just 4 in 2022, representing an 85.19% reduction. When adjusted for population, this translates to a decrease from 4.14 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.62 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.18% in 2010, peaking at 0.60% in 2020, and then dropping sharply to 0.07% in 2022. This substantial decrease suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Roeland Park, has shown more variability. In 2010, there were 220 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 118 in 2020 but then increased to 229 in 2022. This represents a slight overall increase of 4.09% from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 33.76 in 2010 to 35.69 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts rose from 0.41% in 2010 to 0.66% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime has become relatively more prevalent in Roeland Park compared to the rest of Kansas.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 18 such thefts, which increased to 34 in 2022, an 88.89% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents nearly doubled from 2.76 in 2010 to 5.30 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.35% in 2010 to 0.65% in 2022, suggesting this crime has become a growing concern for the community.
Arson cases in Roeland Park have been rare, with no reported cases in most years. However, one case was reported in 2021, representing 0.57% of the state's arson cases that year. Given the infrequency of arson, it's difficult to establish a meaningful trend or rate per 1,000 residents.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in property crimes, particularly larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, coincides with a slight decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing, which dropped from 73% in 2013 to 72% in 2022. This could suggest a potential link between property ownership and crime rates. Additionally, the increase in property crimes aligns with a gradual shift in racial demographics, as the white population percentage decreased from 84% in 2013 to 78% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 7% to 14% during the same period.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Roeland Park may see a continued increase in overall property crimes, potentially reaching around 300-320 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the predominant form of property crime, potentially accounting for 75-80% of all cases. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, possibly reaching 40-45 cases per year. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially stabilizing at 5-10 cases annually.
In summary, Roeland Park has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While burglaries have significantly decreased, larceny-thefts have slightly increased, and motor vehicle thefts have risen substantially. These changes have occurred against a backdrop of subtle demographic shifts, including a slight decrease in owner-occupied housing and increasing diversity. As the city moves forward, addressing the rising trends in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft will likely be key priorities for maintaining community safety and quality of life in Roeland Park.
