Contrary to the declining trends in burglary and larceny theft, motor vehicle theft has seen a significant increase. In 2010, there were 752 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 1,364 in 2022, an 81.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.57 in 2010 to 6.52 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts only rose slightly from 4.89% to 6.57%. This trend suggests a growing challenge in preventing auto thefts, possibly due to new technologies or methods employed by criminals.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but show an overall decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 176 arson cases, which decreased to 126 in 2022, a 28.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.84 in 2010 to 0.60 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases decreased only slightly from 30.88% to 27.1%, indicating that arson remains a significant concern relative to state figures.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $30,158 in 2013 to $43,631 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 38% in 2013 to 41% in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher rates of homeownership contribute to community stability and reduced crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in total property crimes. However, motor vehicle thefts are projected to continue rising, potentially reaching around 1,800 cases by 2029 if current trends persist. Burglaries and larceny thefts are expected to continue their downward trajectory, with burglaries potentially dropping below 700 cases and larceny thefts approaching 4,500 cases annually by 2029.

In summary, Rochester has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a growing challenge that may require targeted interventions. The correlation between rising incomes, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates suggests that continued focus on economic development and community investment could further enhance public safety in Rochester.