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Property Crime Trends in Rochelle, Illinois: A City with Shifting Homeownership
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rochelle, a city in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2019 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly, with the 2020 data showing incomplete reporting. The city's population saw a slight increase of 0.75% from 12,015 in 2019 to 12,001 in 2022, providing context for the crime rate analysis.
Burglary trends in the city show a slight decline from 20 incidents in 2019 to 19 in 2020. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate decreased from 1.66 to 1.57 per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.08% to 0.09%. This suggests that while burglaries decreased locally, the reduction was less pronounced than the state average, indicating a relative increase in the city's contribution to state burglary figures.
The analysis of larceny-theft trends is limited due to incomplete data for 2020. In 2019, there were 84 reported larceny-theft incidents, representing 0.06% of the state's total. Without 2020 data, it's challenging to discern a trend or make comparisons. This gap in reporting highlights the importance of consistent data collection for accurate crime analysis.
Motor vehicle theft saw an increase from 5 incidents in 2019 to 7 in 2020. This represents a rise from 0.42 to 0.58 thefts per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.03% to 0.04%. This upward trend, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state figures, suggests a growing concern in this specific area of property crime.
Arson incidents remained constant at 1 per year in both 2019 and 2020. However, the city's share of state arson cases decreased from 0.10% to 0.08%. This stable local trend, coupled with a decrease in state proportion, indicates that arson rates might have increased more rapidly in other parts of the state during this period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a notable relationship between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 879 per square mile in 2019 to 878 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in some property crime categories. Additionally, the median income increased from $57,567 in 2019 to $58,662 in 2022, which could potentially be linked to the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible inverse relationship between income levels and property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued slight decrease in overall property crime rates if current trends persist. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 1.5 per 1,000 residents, while motor vehicle theft might show a marginal increase to about 0.65 per 1,000 residents. Larceny-theft predictions are less certain due to the data gap, but assuming a continuation of the 2019 trend, rates might hover around 6.5 per 1,000 residents.
In summary, Rochelle's property crime landscape shows a mixed picture with decreasing burglaries, increasing motor vehicle thefts, and stable arson rates. The city's changing demographics and economic indicators appear to influence these trends. While some crime rates have decreased, the city's proportion of state crime in certain categories has increased, suggesting a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. As Rochelle continues to evolve, monitoring these trends will be crucial for maintaining and improving public safety.
