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Property Crime Trends in Rochelle, Georgia: A Decade of Decline and Stability
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DATA SOURCE
United States Census Bureau: American Community Survey Data (ACS)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI): Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by State by City
Rochelle, located in Georgia, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2013 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 46 in 2013, reaching a peak of 54 in 2016, and then decreasing to 41 in 2018. This represents an overall decrease of 10.87% in property crimes during this period. Concurrently, the population experienced some volatility, growing from 1,927 in 2013 to 2,124 in 2022, an increase of 10.22%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a downward trend over time. In 2013, there were 20 burglaries, which decreased to 12 by 2018, marking a 40% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 10.38 in 2013 to 6.75 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.07% in 2013, peaking at 0.11% in 2015, and settling at 0.08% in 2018. This decline in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the population, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns in the community.
Larceny-theft incidents showed more variability. Starting at 26 cases in 2013, they peaked at 33 in 2016 before decreasing to 29 in 2018, representing an overall increase of 11.54%. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 13.49 in 2013 to 16.32 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.02% and 0.04% throughout the period. This suggests that while larceny-theft remained a persistent issue, its prevalence relative to the state did not significantly change.
Interestingly, the data shows no reported motor vehicle thefts from 2013 to 2018. This absence of motor vehicle theft is noteworthy and could indicate effective deterrence measures or possibly underreporting.
Arson cases were rare, with only two reported incidents in 2015, accounting for 0.73% of state arson cases that year. In all other years, no arson cases were reported. This spike in 2015, though small in absolute numbers, represents a significant anomaly for the city and warrants further investigation into potential causes or reporting discrepancies.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $31,550 in 2013 to $38,366 in 2018, overall property crime rates showed a general downward trend. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at around 5-6 incidents per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft may show a slight increase to about 18-20 incidents per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain very low or non-existent, barring any significant changes in local conditions.
In summary, Rochelle has experienced a general decline in property crimes, particularly burglaries, over the observed period. The absence of motor vehicle thefts and the rarity of arson cases are notable features of the city's crime landscape. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic development may play a role in crime reduction. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining focus on economic opportunities and community-based crime prevention strategies could help sustain and improve upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
