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Property Crime Trends in Robertsdale, Alabama: Burglaries Surge Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Robertsdale, a city in Alabama, has witnessed significant changes in property crime rates alongside population growth from 2010 to 2022. During this period, the total number of property crimes increased by 76.8%, from 220 to 389 incidents, while the population grew by 19.8%, from 10,125 to 12,131 residents. This disproportionate increase in crime relative to population growth suggests a concerning trend in the city's safety landscape.
Burglary rates in Robertsdale have shown substantial fluctuations over the years. Starting with 28 incidents in 2010, burglaries peaked at 62 in 2011, then declined to 33 in 2016, before surging to 115 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.77 in 2010 to 9.48 in 2022. Notably, Robertsdale's share of state burglaries increased dramatically from 0.12% in 2010 to 1.01% in 2022, indicating a much faster increase compared to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft, the most prevalent property crime in Robertsdale, demonstrated an overall upward trend. Incidents increased from 185 in 2010 to 268 in 2022, representing a 44.9% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 18.27 to 22.09. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases more than doubled, from 0.25% in 2010 to 0.58% in 2022, suggesting a faster increase than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in Robertsdale remained relatively stable in absolute numbers, with 7 incidents in 2010 and 6 in 2022. However, there were fluctuations during this period, with a peak of 17 thefts in 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.69 in 2010 to 0.49 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.12% to 0.09% over this period, indicating a slower growth rate compared to the state.
Arson data for Robertsdale is limited, with only one reported incident in 2011, representing 0.18% of state arsons that year. No other arson data is available for the analyzed period, making it difficult to establish trends or draw meaningful conclusions about this specific crime category.
An examination of correlations reveals a moderate positive relationship between population density and property crime rates in Robertsdale. As the population density increased from 1,464 per square mile in 2010 to 1,754 in 2022, total property crimes also rose. Additionally, there appears to be an inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. For instance, when the median income dropped from $47,559 in 2015 to $41,061 in 2016, property crimes increased from 297 to 291 in the same period.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it is projected that by 2029, property crime in Robertsdale could potentially reach around 450-500 incidents annually. This forecast assumes a continuation of current trends and does not account for potential interventions or significant socioeconomic changes.
In summary, Robertsdale has experienced a notable increase in property crimes, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft, outpacing its population growth. The city's share of state property crimes has generally increased, suggesting localized factors may be contributing to these trends. The relationship between socioeconomic factors and crime rates underscores the complex nature of urban crime dynamics in Robertsdale, highlighting the need for targeted strategies to address these challenges in the coming years.
