Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 21 motor vehicle thefts reported, which increased to 49 by 2022, a substantial 133% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.0 in 2010 to 2.5 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly from 0.2% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022. This trend is concerning and suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing problem in the city relative to other types of property crime and compared to state averages.

Arson incidents have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increase. In 2010, there were 4 reported arsons, which increased to 5 in 2022, a 25% increase. The arson rate per 1,000 people rose slightly from 0.2 in 2010 to 0.25 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.57% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in the city compared to the state average.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $38,102 in 2013 to $45,307 in 2021, the total number of property crimes decreased from 989 to 552. However, this trend reversed in 2022 when the median income dropped to $39,700, and property crimes increased to 690.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to continue their downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Motor vehicle theft, however, is projected to continue increasing unless significant interventions are implemented. Arson incidents are expected to remain relatively stable but may show slight increases in line with recent trends.

In conclusion, Roanoke Rapids has made notable progress in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the city faces growing challenges in motor vehicle theft and arson. The relationship between economic factors and crime rates underscores the importance of addressing socioeconomic conditions as part of a comprehensive crime reduction strategy. As the city moves forward, focusing on targeted interventions for specific crime types, especially motor vehicle theft, while maintaining efforts to improve economic conditions could be key to further reducing property crime rates.