Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex trend. While the number of incidents increased slightly from 13 in 2010 to 15 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 1.0 to 1.2. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.12% to 0.08%, indicating that while Ripley's rates remained steady, they improved relative to the state average.

Arson cases in the city remained low throughout the period, with some fluctuation. From no reported cases in 2010, arson peaked at 6 incidents in 2013 before settling at 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0 to 0.17. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0% to 0.37%, suggesting that while arson remains rare, it has become relatively more prevalent in Ripley compared to the state average.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $28,711 in 2013 to $44,443 in 2022, total property crimes fell from 427 to 211. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.

Applying predictive models based on current trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Ripley may see further reductions in property crime. Total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 150-170 incidents annually, with burglaries potentially dropping below 40 cases per year, and larceny-theft cases potentially falling to around 100-120 annually. Motor vehicle theft and arson are likely to remain relatively stable at their current low levels.

The analysis of Ripley's property crime trends reveals a significant improvement in public safety over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with stable or slightly improving rates in motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a community that has made considerable strides in reducing property crime. The strong correlation between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that economic development may be a key factor in this improvement. As Ripley continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic growth and community development could be crucial in sustaining and further improving these positive trends in property crime reduction.