Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low, with some fluctuation. In 2010, there were 3 reported cases, dropping to 0 in several years, before rising back to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.84 in 2010 to 0.69 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics consistently remained at or near 0%, reflecting the low incidence of this crime in Rio Hondo relative to the rest of Texas.

Arson cases in Rio Hondo have been rare, with only one reported incident each in 2010, 2011, and 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents for these years was approximately 0.28, 0.27, and 0.23 respectively. In the years with reported arson, the city's contribution to state arson statistics ranged from 0.02% to 0.04%, indicating that arson is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 2,109 per square mile in 2010 to 2,577 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. There appears to be a weak inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $27,657 in 2013 to $49,349 in 2022, property crime incidents tended to decrease, though not consistently.

The Hispanic population percentage increased from 80% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, while the white population percentage decreased from 19% to 11% during the same period. This demographic shift coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that the total number of property crimes may range between 30 to 40 incidents annually by 2029, assuming no significant changes in local conditions or law enforcement strategies.

In summary, Rio Hondo has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite population growth. This trend suggests effective local crime prevention strategies and community engagement. However, the city's contribution to statewide crime statistics remains minimal, indicating that local improvements, while significant for the community, have limited impact on broader state-level crime rates. The relationship between demographic changes, economic factors, and crime rates in Rio Hondo provides an interesting case study for small urban areas managing property crime amidst population growth and demographic shifts.