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Property Crime Trends in Rigby, Idaho: A Decade of Improvement Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rigby, located in Idaho, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade, alongside substantial population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 50.5%, from 97 to 48 incidents, while the population increased by 55.5%, from 8,335 to 12,960 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 15 burglaries, which decreased to 7 in 2022, representing a 53.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 1.80 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.54 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.35% in 2010, peaking at 0.45% in 2013, and settling at 0.34% in 2022. This trend suggests improved local security measures or changing criminal patterns.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased significantly. In 2010, there were 78 cases, which dropped to 38 in 2022, a 51.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 9.36 in 2010 to 2.93 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.42% in 2010 to 0.37% in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. This trend indicates a general improvement in property protection or a shift in criminal activities.
Motor vehicle theft showed a slight decrease, from 4 incidents in 2010 to 3 in 2022, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.48 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, starting at 0.46% in 2010, dropping to a low of 0.09% in 2019 and 2020, before rising to 0.25% in 2022. This fluctuation suggests changing patterns in vehicle security or theft opportunities.
Arson incidents remained consistently at zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, indicating either an absence of such crimes or potential underreporting.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,446 per square mile in 2010 to 5,359 in 2022, property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates. The median income increased from $52,830 in 2013 to $69,243 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates if current trends persist. Burglary rates may stabilize around 0.5 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft could potentially decrease further to around 2.5 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft rates are likely to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 0.2 and 0.3 per 1,000 residents.
In summary, Rigby has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime statistics over the past decade, particularly when viewed in the context of its rapid population growth. The significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates, coupled with stable low rates of motor vehicle theft and absence of arson, paint a picture of a city that has effectively managed its growth while enhancing public safety. These trends, if continued, suggest a positive outlook for Rigby's future in terms of property crime management and overall community safety.
