Motor vehicle theft experienced a significant increase, from 5 incidents in 2010 to 18 in 2020, a 260% rise. The rate per 1,000 people jumped from 0.77 to 2.72. More strikingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.04% to 0.1%, indicating a disproportionate growth compared to state trends.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with 4 incidents in 2010, decreasing to 0 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.61 to 0. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated, peaking at 0.52% in 2017 before falling to 0% in 2020.

Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship is observed between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $38,641 in 2013 to $64,154 in 2020, total property crimes decreased from 280 to 213. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (until 2029, presented as five years from now), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 40 incidents annually, while larceny thefts may further decrease to approximately 140 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts, however, are projected to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 25-30 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with occasional incidents not exceeding 2-3 per year.

In summary, Richmond has shown resilience in managing property crime despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in larceny theft reduction, while motor vehicle theft emerges as an area of growing concern. The inverse correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic development could be a key factor in further reducing property crime in Richmond.