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Property Crime Trends in Red Bay, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations and Decreases
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Red Bay, Alabama, a small community with a population of 3,184 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 10.53%, from 57 incidents to 51, while the population decreased by 3.49% from 3,299 to 3,184 residents.
Burglary trends in Red Bay have shown significant changes over time. In 2010, there was only 1 reported burglary, which increased to 23 in 2012 before declining to 5 in 2022, representing an overall increase of 400% from 2010 to 2022. When considering the rate per 1,000 people, burglaries increased from 0.30 per 1,000 in 2010 to 1.57 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.08% in 2018 and settling at 0.04% in 2022, indicating a relatively low contribution to overall state burglary figures.
Larceny theft, the most prevalent property crime in Red Bay, demonstrated a slight decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 52 reported larceny thefts, which decreased to 40 in 2022, a 23.08% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 15.76 in 2010 to 12.56 in 2022. Despite this decrease, the city's contribution to state larceny theft figures increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, suggesting a slower decline compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in Red Bay showed an increase over the analyzed period. In 2010, there were 4 reported motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 6 in 2022, a 50% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.21 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. Red Bay's population density remained relatively stable, ranging from 326 to 342 people per square mile between 2010 and 2022. During this period, the median income increased from $38,815 in 2013 to $45,334 in 2022, a 16.79% rise. Notably, as the median income increased, there was a general decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential negative correlation between income and property crime rates.
The racial composition of Red Bay remained predominantly white, though it decreased slightly from 98% in 2013 to 87% in 2022. Concurrently, there was an increase in the Hispanic population from 0% in 2013 to 7% in 2022. This gradual diversification coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, although a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall decreasing trend in total property crimes. Based on historical data, we might expect to see burglaries remain low but stable, larceny thefts to continue their gradual decline, and motor vehicle thefts to potentially stabilize or slightly increase.
In summary, Red Bay has experienced a general decrease in property crimes over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglaries and larceny thefts. The increase in motor vehicle thefts, while significant in percentage terms, remains relatively low in absolute numbers. These trends, coupled with the increasing median income and gradual diversification of the population, paint a picture of a changing community. As the city moves forward, continued monitoring of these trends will be crucial for maintaining and improving public safety.
