Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained consistently low. There was 1 reported case in 2010 and 1 in 2022, with several years reporting zero incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.33 in 2022 due to population growth. The city's contribution to the state's motor vehicle theft total remained at 0% throughout the period. This stability in low motor vehicle theft rates suggests effective prevention measures or possibly a lack of opportunity for this type of crime in the area.

Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only two years reporting incidents: 1 case in 2011 and 2 cases in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents for these years was 0.37 and 0.58, respectively. The city's contribution to the state's arson total was 0.03% in 2011 and 0.13% in 2018, with all other years at 0%. The sporadic nature of arson cases makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but the overall rarity of incidents is a positive indicator for public safety.

A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 1,334 per square mile in 2010 to 1,486 in 2022, there was a shift in the types of property crimes committed, with a decrease in burglaries and an increase in larceny thefts. This could suggest that higher population density may lead to more opportunities for larceny theft while making burglaries more difficult.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the current trends. Burglaries are likely to remain low, possibly stabilizing around 2-4 cases per year. Larceny theft may continue to increase slightly, potentially reaching 18-20 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain low, with 0-1 cases per year. Arson incidents are likely to remain rare and sporadic.

In summary, Rancho Viejo has experienced a significant shift in its property crime landscape over the past decade. The substantial decrease in burglaries, coupled with an increase in larceny thefts, suggests a changing pattern of criminal activity that may be influenced by factors such as population density and improved home security measures. The consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson contribute to an overall picture of a community that, despite some fluctuations, maintains a relatively stable property crime environment. As the city continues to grow, maintaining vigilance and adapting crime prevention strategies will be crucial in addressing the evolving nature of property crimes in the area.