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Property Crime Trends in Ranburne, Alabama: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ranburne, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. The total number of property crimes in this small community has seen a significant decrease, dropping from 13 incidents in 2010 to just 6 in 2022, representing a 53.8% reduction. This decline in crime has occurred against a backdrop of moderate population growth, with the town's population increasing from 2,943 in 2010 to 3,177 in 2022, a 7.9% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries reported, which decreased to 3 in 2016, and further dropped to 1 in 2022. This represents an 85.7% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.38 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.31 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary figures has also diminished, from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This significant reduction suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing residential break-ins.
Larceny-theft incidents have fluctuated over the years but show an overall upward trend. In 2010, there were 5 reported cases, which increased to 17 in 2016, before decreasing to 5 in 2022. Despite ending at the same number as 2010, the rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 1.70 in 2010 to 1.57 in 2022 due to population growth. The city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, moving from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2016, and back to 0.01% in 2022. This trend suggests that while petty theft remains a concern, it has not escalated significantly relative to population growth.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained low and relatively stable. There was 1 reported case in both 2010 and 2016, with no cases reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.34 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft figures has been minimal, at 0.02% in 2010, 0.01% in 2016, and 0% in 2022. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue in the community.
Arson data for the city is limited, with no reported cases in 2022 and no data available for previous years. This lack of data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with an increase in homeownership rates, which rose from 74% in 2013 to 85% in 2022. This could suggest that higher homeownership rates contribute to increased community stability and lower crime rates. Additionally, the median income has shown some volatility but overall growth, increasing from $53,993 in 2013 to $53,074 in 2022, which may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Ranburne are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crimes reduce further, potentially reaching as low as 3-4 incidents per year. Burglary rates may stabilize at very low levels, possibly 0-1 cases annually. Larceny-theft might continue to fluctuate but is likely to remain the most common property crime, potentially averaging 3-4 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain rare or non-existent.
In summary, Ranburne has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and motor vehicle theft. This improvement, coupled with population growth and increasing homeownership rates, suggests a community that is becoming safer and more stable. While larceny-theft remains an area for continued vigilance, the overall property crime situation in Ranburne appears to be improving, positioning the community for a potentially safer future.
