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Property Crime Trends in Ramseur: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ramseur, a town in North Carolina, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes in the city fluctuated, starting at 78 in 2010, peaking at 90 in 2011 and 2017, and settling at 78 again in 2018. This represents a 0% change over the eight-year period. During the same timeframe, the population grew from 5,402 in 2010 to 5,936 in 2018, an increase of 9.9%.
Burglary trends in the city show significant fluctuations. In 2010, there were 25 burglaries, which increased to 35 in 2013, representing a 40% increase. However, by 2018, burglaries decreased to 22, a 37.1% drop from 2013. The burglary rate per 1,000 people also varied, from 4.63 in 2010 to 6.32 in 2013, before dropping to 3.71 in 2018. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.1% in 2018, doubling its contribution to state burglary statistics despite the overall decrease in local incidents.
Larceny-theft trends showed more stability but with some variations. In 2010, there were 51 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 45 in 2013, but then increased to 53 in 2018. This represents a 3.9% increase from 2010 to 2018. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 9.44 in 2010 to 8.93 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2018, indicating a growing share of state larceny-theft occurrences.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a notable increase. From 2 incidents in 2010, it rose to 4 in 2017, and then slightly decreased to 3 in 2018, representing a 50% increase over the eight-year period. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.51 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2018, doubling its contribution to state statistics in this category.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported incident in 2012, representing 0.09% of state arson cases that year. The lack of consistent data makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends for this category.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 2,701 per square mile in 2010 to 2,968 in 2018, property crime rates fluctuated but generally increased. The median income, available from 2013 onwards, shows a potential inverse correlation with property crime rates. As the median income rose from $40,044 in 2013 to $43,643 in 2018, property crime rates showed some decline, particularly in categories like burglary.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries may continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 18-20 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the most common property crime, potentially fluctuating around 55-60 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts might stabilize at 3-4 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Ramseur has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While overall property crime numbers have remained relatively stable, there have been significant shifts within specific categories. The increase in the city's share of state crime statistics, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, suggests that Ramseur is facing growing challenges in property crime relative to other areas in North Carolina. The potential correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates offers a positive outlook, but the city must remain vigilant in addressing property crime issues to ensure the safety and security of its growing population.
