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Property Crime Trends in Raeford, North Carolina: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Raeford, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically from 402 to 90, representing a 77.6% reduction. During this same period, the population increased slightly from 5,229 to 5,556, a 6.3% growth.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 89 burglaries, which dropped to 14 by 2022, marking an 84.3% decrease. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 17.0 in 2010 to 2.5 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.25% in 2018 before declining to 0.06% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries decreased citywide, the reduction was more pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft cases also demonstrated a downward trend, albeit less dramatic than burglaries. The number of incidents decreased from 286 in 2010 to 75 in 2022, a 73.8% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 54.7 in 2010 to 13.5 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases declined from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement in this category outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city saw a significant reduction, from 27 cases in 2010 to just 1 in 2022, a 96.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.2 in 2010 to 0.2 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, suggesting a much more substantial improvement compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city were relatively rare, with only sporadic incidents reported. The highest number of arsons recorded was 1 in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. In other years, including 2022, no arsons were reported. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a clear trend or meaningful rate per 1,000 residents for arson cases.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with an increase in median income, rising from $25,832 in 2013 to $38,009 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 55% in 2013 to 59% in 2022, which could indicate greater community stability and potentially lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data, we can estimate that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to around 60-70 per year, with burglaries potentially dropping to single digits annually.
In summary, Raeford has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most significant improvements were seen in motor vehicle theft and burglary rates. These positive trends, coupled with improving economic indicators, suggest a city that has become safer and more stable for its residents. However, it's important to note that maintaining this downward trend may become more challenging as crime rates approach very low levels. The city's ability to sustain these improvements will likely depend on continued economic growth, community engagement, and effective law enforcement strategies.
