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Property Crime Trends in Queens: A Decade of Divergent Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Queens, New York, is a diverse and vibrant borough known for its cultural richness and dynamic urban landscape. The city has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 29,083 to 38,486, representing a 32.3% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 2,198,818 to 2,360,823, a 7.4% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 4,704 burglaries, which decreased to 2,999 by 2022, a 36.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.14 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.27 per 1,000 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 11.83% in 2010 to 13.19% in 2022, suggesting that while burglaries decreased overall, they did not decrease as rapidly as in other parts of the state.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed an upward trend. In 2010, there were 20,895 incidents, which increased to 31,762 by 2022, a 52% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 9.50 in 2010 to 13.45 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts also increased from 11.91% to 16.50% during this period, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited fluctuations but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were 3,484 incidents, which rose to 3,725 by 2022, a 6.9% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate remained relatively stable, moving from 1.58 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.58 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 22.66% to 17.95%, suggesting that other areas of the state experienced higher growth rates in this crime category.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $68,474 in 2013 to $76,814 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in property crimes, particularly larceny theft. This could suggest that as the overall wealth of the area increased, it may have become a more attractive target for property crimes.
Population density also showed a strong correlation with property crime rates. As density increased from 20,148 people per square mile in 2010 to 21,632 in 2022, total property crimes rose as well. This aligns with criminological theories that suggest higher population densities can lead to increased opportunities for certain types of crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued upward trajectory. Based on the current trends, total property crimes could potentially reach around 45,000 by 2029, with larceny theft likely to constitute the majority of this increase. However, burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially dropping to around 2,500 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Queens has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While burglaries have decreased significantly, larceny thefts have risen sharply, driving an overall increase in property crimes. The city's growing population density and rising median income appear to be influential factors in these trends. As the borough continues to develop and change, ongoing monitoring and adaptive crime prevention strategies will be crucial to address these evolving challenges and maintain community safety.
