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Property Crime Trends in Queen City, Texas: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Queen City, Texas, a small municipality with a land area of 3.54 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 68.6%, from 51 to 16 incidents. Concurrently, the population declined by 12.2%, from 2,083 in 2010 to 1,828 in 2022, indicating a complex relationship between demographic changes and criminal activity.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 15 burglaries, which decreased to 10 in 2022, representing a 33.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 7.2 in 2010 to 5.5 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, oscillating between 0.01% and 0.02% throughout the period, suggesting that the local trend aligns with broader state patterns.
Larceny-theft incidents also declined substantially. In 2010, there were 32 reported cases, which dropped to just 5 in 2022, marking an 84.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 15.4 in 2010 to 2.7 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained minimal, consistently at or below 0.01%, indicating that this crime category has become less prevalent in the local context.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number rose to a peak of 25 in 2021 before dropping sharply to 1 in 2022. This represents a 75% decrease over the entire period, but with significant fluctuations. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 1.9 in 2010 to 0.5 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts spiked to 0.03% in 2021 before returning to 0% in 2022, suggesting an anomalous year rather than a consistent trend.
Arson cases have been rare in the city, with only two reported incidents in 2015, representing 0.07% of state arsons that year. In all other years, no arsons were reported, indicating that this is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.
Examining correlations reveals interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a gradual increase in median income, which rose from $38,331 in 2013 to $52,677 in 2022. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 59% in 2013 to 72% in 2022. These trends suggest that improved economic conditions and higher rates of homeownership may contribute to lower property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued but gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are projected to stabilize around 8-10 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may further decrease to 3-5 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain low, averaging 1-2 incidents annually. However, these predictions assume current socioeconomic trends continue and no major disruptive events occur.
In summary, Queen City has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft and burglary. This positive trend correlates with rising median incomes and increased homeownership, suggesting an improving quality of life for residents. While challenges remain, the overall trajectory indicates a safer community with lower property crime risks compared to a decade ago.
