Motor vehicle theft presents a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased from 11 in 2010 to 24 in 2022, representing a 118.2% increase, the rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.81 to 1.78. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.10% to 0.13% over this period. This trend indicates that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern for the community, outpacing both population growth and state-wide trends.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare but volatile. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 5 per year, with no clear trend. In 2022, there were 5 reported arsons, up from 1 in 2010. The city's share of state arsons increased dramatically from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.93% in 2022, suggesting that arson has become a more significant issue relative to state trends.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $34,666 in 2013 to $47,149 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 337 to 249. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes, with the exception of motor vehicle theft, which may continue to rise. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to decline further, while arson cases are likely to remain low but unpredictable.

In conclusion, Pulaski has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the volatility of arson cases present ongoing challenges. The correlation between rising median income and falling crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a crucial role in further reducing property crime in the coming years.