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Property Crime Trends in Prestonsburg, Kentucky: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Prestonsburg, Kentucky, a city spanning 14.7 square miles, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 59%, from 100 to 41 incidents. During this same period, the population declined slightly by 3.3%, from 12,818 to 12,393 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 26 burglaries, which decreased to 17 by 2022, representing a 34.6% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.03 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.37 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased significantly from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.35% in 2022, suggesting a potentially faster decline in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny theft incidents also decreased substantially over the examined period. In 2010, there were 68 reported cases, which dropped to 19 in 2022, a 72.1% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.30 in 2010 to 1.53 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft cases decreased from 0.12% to 0.07% during this time, indicating a more rapid decline in larceny theft compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed a fluctuating trend but ultimately decreased from 6 incidents in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 16.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.47 in 2010 to 0.40 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.14% to 0.12%, suggesting a slightly slower decline compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number of arson cases was 2 in 2015, representing 1.09% of state arson cases that year. By 2022, there were no reported arson cases, indicating an overall decrease in this crime category.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $27,274 in 2013 to $40,459 in 2022, property crime rates showed a corresponding decrease. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic improvement and property crime incidence. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 61% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, which coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating a link between higher home ownership rates and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could potentially decrease to around 30-35 incidents per year, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue.
In summary, Prestonsburg has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny theft. This downward trend in crime rates, coupled with increases in median income and home ownership, paints a picture of a city that has made substantial progress in improving safety and quality of life for its residents. The projected continued decrease in property crimes over the next five years suggests a positive outlook for the city's future security landscape.
