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Property Crime Trends in Port Lavaca: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Port Lavaca, a city in Texas, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates and population over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, decreasing overall by 41.03% from 351 in 2010 to 207 in 2022. During this same period, the population declined by 8.46%, from 13,446 in 2010 to 12,309 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a considerable decline over time. In 2010, there were 72 burglaries reported, which peaked at 144 in 2016 before dropping to 39 in 2022, representing a 45.83% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.35 in 2010 to 3.17 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this overall decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny-theft incidents have also shown a downward trend. In 2010, there were 266 reported cases, which decreased to 153 in 2022, a 42.48% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 19.78 in 2010 to 12.43 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased slightly from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating that the city's reduction in larceny-theft was somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. There were 13 reported cases in 2010, which increased to 28 in 2015 before decreasing to 15 in 2022, representing a 15.38% increase over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.97 in 2010 to 1.22 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low but variable. There were 3 reported cases in 2010, which decreased to 0 in 2020 and 2022, with a spike of 2 cases in 2021. The arson rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.22 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.07% in 2010 to 0% in 2022, with a notable spike to 0.09% in 2021.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $53,746 in 2013 to $57,035 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and reduced property crime rates. As owner occupancy increased from 62% in 2013 to 75% in 2022, property crime rates tended to decrease.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Port Lavaca may continue to decrease slightly. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase. Arson cases are likely to remain low but could experience occasional spikes due to their low baseline.
In summary, Port Lavaca has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This trend, coupled with increases in median income and home ownership, suggests an overall improvement in the city's safety and economic stability. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts and the volatile nature of arson cases highlight areas that may require continued attention from local law enforcement and community initiatives.
