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Property Crime Trends in Polo, Missouri: Stability Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Polo, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 6 in 2010, peaking at 8 in 2012, and ending at 6 in 2017. This represents no overall change in the total number of property crimes during this period. Interestingly, the population grew from 586 in 2010 to 763 in 2017, an increase of approximately 30%.
Burglary rates in the city showed some variation over time. In 2010, there was 1 burglary reported, which remained consistent through 2013. However, there was a spike to 2 burglaries in 2014, followed by a decrease back to 1 in 2015 and 2017, with no burglaries reported in 2016. When considering the population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from 1.71 in 2010 to 1.31 in 2017. The percentage of state burglaries attributed to the city remained minimal, peaking at 0.01% in 2014.
Larceny theft showed more significant fluctuations. Starting at 4 incidents in 2010, it increased to 6 in 2013, then dropped sharply to 0 in 2014, before rising again to 5 incidents in 2017. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.83 in 2010 to 6.55 in 2017, despite the variations in between. The city's contribution to state larceny theft remained low, reaching a maximum of 0.01% in 2013.
Motor vehicle theft in the city was sporadic. There was 1 incident in 2010, which increased to 2 in 2012, but then dropped to 0 from 2013 to 2017. This translates to a decrease from 1.71 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0 in 2017. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts peaked at 0.01% in 2010 and 2012.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as 0 throughout the period from 2010 to 2017, indicating no arson activity in the city during this time frame.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 951 per square mile in 2010 to 1,239 in 2017, the overall property crime rate remained relatively stable, suggesting that the increase in population did not lead to a proportional increase in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Polo may see a slight decrease in overall property crimes. The burglary rate is expected to stabilize around 1 incident per year, while larceny theft might fluctuate between 3 to 5 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft is predicted to remain low, with possibly 0 to 1 incidents per year. Arson is expected to continue its trend of no reported incidents.
In summary, Polo has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable trends include the stability in burglary rates, the fluctuating but ultimately stable larceny theft rates, and the elimination of motor vehicle thefts in recent years. These trends suggest effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement in crime prevention. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the safety and well-being of its residents.
