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Property Crime Trends in Plum: A Decade of Change and Economic Influence
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Plum, located in Pennsylvania, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the years, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes in the city increased by 3.85%, rising from 156 to 150 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 1.69%, from 26,850 to 27,305 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 63 burglaries, which decreased to 19 by 2018, representing a substantial 69.84% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.35 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.70 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.25% in 2010, peaking at 0.39% in 2014, and then declining to 0.14% by 2018. This downward trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing burglaries.
Larceny-theft incidents demonstrated a more varied pattern. The number increased from 93 cases in 2010 to 116 in 2018, a 24.73% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 3.46 in 2010 to 4.25 in 2018. The city's portion of state larceny-thefts rose from 0.12% to 0.18% over this period. This upward trend in larceny-theft could indicate a shift in criminal activity towards less confrontational property crimes.
Motor vehicle theft showed a concerning upward trend. From no reported cases in 2010, it increased to 15 incidents in 2018. This translates to a rate of 0.55 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0% to 0.18%. This significant increase might suggest a need for enhanced vehicle security measures and increased public awareness.
Arson data is limited, with only one reported incident in 2017, representing 0.12% of state arsons that year. The sporadic nature of arson in the city makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or draw meaningful conclusions about its impact on overall property crime rates.
Examining correlations reveals interesting patterns. The rise in property crimes, particularly larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, coincides with a period of increasing median income in the city. From 2013 to 2018, median income rose from $67,061 to $75,573, a 12.69% increase. This could suggest that as the city became more affluent, it may have become a more attractive target for certain types of property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the observed patterns. Burglaries are expected to remain low or potentially decrease further. Larceny-theft may continue its upward trajectory, albeit at a slower rate. Motor vehicle theft could stabilize or show a slight increase. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously, as various factors can influence crime rates.
In summary, Plum has experienced a shift in its property crime landscape over the past decade. The significant decrease in burglaries, coupled with increases in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, points to a changing criminal environment. These trends, occurring alongside population growth and rising median incomes, highlight the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime patterns in the city.
