Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 25 reported cases, which decreased to 23 in 2022, a modest 8% reduction. However, the rate per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 2.11 in 2010 to 1.77 in 2022, a 16% decrease, due to population growth outpacing the reduction in thefts. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.07% over the years. This suggests that while overall numbers have decreased slightly, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue relative to population growth.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. Over the 13-year period, only four years (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2014) reported a single case of arson each, with the remaining years showing zero incidents. This low occurrence makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or rates per population. The city's contribution to state arson cases ranged from 0% to 0.04% in the years where incidents were reported.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $56,512 in 2013 to $62,766 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 60% in 2013 to 69% in 2022, which coincided with the decline in burglaries and overall property crimes. This could indicate that higher home ownership rates may contribute to increased community vigilance and reduced property crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on historical data, we can project that total property crimes may decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029, with burglaries potentially dropping below 20 incidents per year. Larceny theft is expected to continue its gradual decline, potentially reaching around 170-180 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize or show a slight decrease, potentially averaging around 20 incidents per year.

In summary, Pleasanton has demonstrated a significant improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. The reduction in crime rates, coupled with population growth and improving economic indicators, suggests a positive trend in community safety and quality of life. However, ongoing attention to motor vehicle theft prevention may be warranted. The projected continuation of these favorable trends indicates that the city is likely to maintain its progress in reducing property crimes in the coming years.