Motor vehicle theft in the area showed fluctuations but an overall increase. In 2010, there were 82 incidents, which rose to 98 in 2022, a 19.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.16 in 2010 to 1.28 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, changing from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting that the increase was in line with state trends.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some volatility. In 2010, there were 6 reported arsons, which decreased to 5 in 2020, the last year with available data. This represents a 16.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.085 in 2010 to 0.062 in 2020. The city's contribution to state arson cases decreased from 0.10% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2020, indicating a faster decline compared to the state average.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between population density and overall property crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,918 per square mile in 2010 to 3,176 in 2022, property crimes also showed an overall upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a weak negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $121,622 in 2013 to $183,969 in 2022, property crime rates showed some fluctuations but an overall decrease from the peak in 2017.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of recent patterns. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 120 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is predicted to stabilize around 1,150 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 110 cases per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, fluctuating between 3 to 5 incidents annually.

In summary, Pleasanton has experienced a complex evolution in property crime trends over the past decade. While burglaries have significantly decreased, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have seen increases, albeit at different rates. The city's contribution to state property crime figures has generally increased slightly, suggesting that local trends are somewhat diverging from state averages. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and increasing median income, paint a picture of a changing urban landscape where certain types of property crimes are becoming more prevalent while others are on the decline.