Motor vehicle theft showed more variability. Starting with 5 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 12 in 2020 before decreasing to 6 in 2022, representing a 20% increase over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.41 in 2010 to 1.82 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 0.08% in 2019, indicating periods where this crime was disproportionately prevalent in the area compared to state averages.

Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only two reported cases over the 12-year period - one in 2017 and one in 2021. This sporadic occurrence makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends, but it's worth noting that when arson did occur, it represented a significant portion of state arson cases (0.13% in 2017 and 0.15% in 2021), suggesting these were unusual events for the area.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a decrease in homeownership rates, from 66% in 2013 to 62% in 2022. This correlation suggests that changes in community composition may have influenced crime rates. Additionally, the racial composition remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing over 80% of residents, peaking at 88% in 2022. This stability in racial demographics occurred alongside fluctuating crime rates, indicating that other factors were more influential in crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the data, we can project that total property crimes may decrease further to around 20-22 incidents per year by 2029. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially averaging 3-4 cases annually. Larceny theft is predicted to stabilize around 12-15 incidents per year, while motor vehicle theft may fluctuate between 5-7 cases annually.

In summary, Pleasant Valley has experienced a notable overall decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite some fluctuations in specific categories. The most significant improvements were seen in burglary and larceny theft rates, while motor vehicle theft showed more variability. These trends occurred against a backdrop of slight population decline and relatively stable demographic composition. The city's contribution to state crime rates remained generally low, with occasional spikes in certain categories. Looking ahead, if current trends continue, the city is poised to maintain or even improve its property crime situation, potentially enhancing its appeal as a safer community within Missouri.