Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Pleasant Hill: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pleasant Hill, California, a city of approximately 37,000 residents, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 15.7%, from 1,407 to 1,628 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 4.5%, from 35,356 to 36,958 residents, indicating that crime rates have outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 206 burglaries, which decreased to 177 in 2022, representing a 14% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.83 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.79 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this overall decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has seen an increase over the years. In 2010, there were 1,085 incidents, which rose to 1,308 in 2022, marking a 20.6% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 30.69 in 2010 to 35.39 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts also increased from 0.21% to 0.26% during this period, indicating that this trend may be outpacing the state average.
Motor vehicle theft has shown volatility but an overall increase. In 2010, there were 116 incidents, which rose to 143 in 2022, a 23.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.28 in 2010 to 3.87 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.09% to 0.09% over the period, suggesting that this trend is consistent with statewide patterns.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated significantly. In 2010, there were 13 reported arsons, which decreased to 8 in 2020, the last year with available data. This represents a 38.5% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.21 in 2020. The city's share of state arsons decreased from 0.21% to 0.08% during this period, indicating a more substantial reduction compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in property crimes and the rise in median income. As the median income grew from $96,607 in 2013 to $117,347 in 2022, property crimes also increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in the Asian population (from 12% in 2013 to 18% in 2022) and the rise in larceny thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes, potentially reaching around 1,900 incidents annually. Larceny theft is expected to remain the dominant form of property crime, potentially exceeding 1,500 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, possibly reaching 170-180 incidents annually. Burglaries are predicted to stabilize around 150-160 cases per year.
In summary, Pleasant Hill has experienced a complex evolution of property crime patterns over the past decade. While burglaries and arsons have decreased, larceny thefts and motor vehicle thefts have risen. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and economic growth, paint a picture of a changing urban landscape. The city's law enforcement and policymakers may need to adapt their strategies to address the evolving nature of property crimes, particularly focusing on prevention and mitigation of larceny thefts and motor vehicle thefts in the coming years.
