Motor vehicle theft trends in the city present a more complex picture. While the number of motor vehicle thefts initially decreased from 657 in 2010 to 480 in 2011, it then rose to 729 by 2018, an overall increase of 11%. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, rising from 2.15 in 2010 to 2.42 in 2018, a 12.6% increase. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 6.14% in 2010 to 8.61% in 2018, suggesting that this crime category became a growing concern for the city relative to the rest of the state.

Arson cases in the city showed considerable fluctuation. The number of arsons increased from 154 in 2010 to a peak of 248 in 2012, before declining to 102 in 2018, a 33.8% overall decrease. The arson rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 0.81 in 2012 and ending at 0.34 in 2018, a 32.7% decrease from 2010. The city's contribution to state arson statistics was particularly high, starting at 25.45% in 2010, peaking at 41.27% in 2013, and then declining to 12.32% by 2018. This indicates that while arson remained a significant issue for the city, substantial progress was made in reducing its prevalence.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density decreased slightly from 5,521 per square mile in 2010 to 5,436 in 2018, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. Additionally, the rise in median income from $42,004 in 2013 to $47,417 in 2018 coincided with the continued decline in property crime rates, suggesting a possible inverse relationship between economic improvement and criminal activity.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, potentially by another 15-20%. However, motor vehicle theft may continue its upward trend, possibly increasing by 10-15%. Arson cases are projected to stabilize or decrease slightly. These predictions assume that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.

In summary, Pittsburgh has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and arson. The city's efforts have yielded positive results in most categories, aligning with improvements in economic indicators. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an ongoing challenge. As Pittsburgh continues to evolve, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies, especially in areas showing increases, will be crucial for sustaining and improving public safety in the coming years.