Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen a notable decrease. In 2010, there were 141 motor vehicle thefts, which reduced to 72 in 2022, a 48.94% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.57 in 2010 to 3.22 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.11% to 0.05% over the same period. This significant reduction could be attributed to improved vehicle security technologies or targeted law enforcement efforts.

Arson incidents in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent over the years. In 2010, there was 1 reported case of arson, which remained at 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents and the percentage of state arsons have fluctuated but remained very low throughout the period. The low numbers make it difficult to discern clear trends or draw significant conclusions about arson in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $93,616 in 2013 to $101,614 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing slight increases over time.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall decreasing trend in property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, we might expect to see a further reduction in burglaries, potentially reaching around 35-40 incidents per year. Larceny-theft rates may stabilize or show a slight decrease, potentially settling around 400-425 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts could continue their downward trend, possibly dropping to 55-60 incidents per year. Arson rates are likely to remain very low, with 0-2 incidents per year.

In summary, Pinole has experienced a general decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts. This positive trend, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests an improving quality of life for residents. However, the slight increase in larceny-theft incidents indicates that there's still room for improvement in certain areas of property crime prevention. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies and economic development could help sustain and improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.