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Property Crime Trends in Pinetop-Lakeside: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pinetop-Lakeside, a town in Arizona, has witnessed significant changes in property crime patterns over the past decade, concurrent with fluctuations in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 54.1%, from 231 to 106 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 20.9%, from 6,052 to 4,785 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 65 burglaries, which decreased to 13 in 2022, representing an 80% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.7 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.7 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.3% in 2021 before dropping to 0.1% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a decline. In 2010, there were 164 incidents, which reduced to 87 in 2022, a 47% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 27.1 in 2010 to 18.2 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.1-0.15% for most years, with a slight increase to 0.27% in 2021 before returning to 0.11% in 2022. This trend indicates a general improvement in property protection and community vigilance.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents increased from 2 in 2010 to 6 in 2022, a 200% rise. However, due to the small numbers involved, this translates to a change from 0.33 to 1.25 thefts per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, with a peak of 0.22% in 2021. This increase, while seemingly large in percentage terms, represents a small absolute number of incidents and may not signify a major shift in crime patterns.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only sporadic incidents reported. There was one case each in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, representing 0.11%, 0.32%, 0.09%, and 0.1% of state arson cases respectively. Since 2014, no arson cases have been reported, indicating effective fire prevention and investigation measures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 542 per square mile in 2010 to 429 in 2022, the overall property crime rate also declined. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime opportunities.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, if current patterns continue, we can expect the overall property crime rate to stabilize or slightly decrease by 2029. Burglaries are likely to remain low, potentially reaching single digits annually. Larceny-theft may continue its gradual decline, possibly dropping below 80 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts could stabilize around 5-7 cases annually, barring any significant changes in local conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Pinetop-Lakeside has seen a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. The declining population and density appear to have played a role in this trend. While motor vehicle thefts have shown a slight increase, the overall property crime landscape has improved significantly. These trends suggest that the city has become safer in terms of property crimes, which could positively impact residents' quality of life and the town's appeal to potential new residents or businesses.
