Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen an overall increase. From 3 incidents in 2010, it reached a peak of 9 in 2018 before decreasing to 1 in 2022. Despite this recent decrease, the 2022 figure still represents a 200% increase from 2010 when adjusted for population growth. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.46 in 2010 to 0.31 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% in 2010 to a peak of 0.08% in 2018, before dropping to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a recent improvement in this category relative to state figures.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. Only three years (2014, 2015, and 2017) reported arson incidents, with a maximum of 2 cases in 2014. This sporadic nature makes it difficult to establish clear trends or meaningful per capita rates. The city's contribution to state arson cases peaked at 0.27% in 2014 but has been 0% for most years, including 2022.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in population density from 842 per square mile in 2010 to 1,317 in 2022 coincides with fluctuations in property crime rates, suggesting a complex relationship between urban density and crime. Median income showed significant growth from $38,342 in 2013 to $55,271 in 2022, a 44.2% increase. This economic improvement correlates with the overall decrease in property crime rates, particularly in recent years.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are projected to remain low, potentially decreasing further to 3-4 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to fluctuate around 20-25 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 3-4 incidents annually. Arson is predicted to remain rare, with 0-1 cases per year.

In conclusion, Pikeville has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The overall trend indicates a decrease in crime rates when adjusted for population, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. While motor vehicle theft has seen some increases, recent data suggests improvements. The city's economic growth, as indicated by rising median incomes, appears to have a positive correlation with decreasing crime rates. These trends, if continued, position Pikeville for a potentially safer future with managed crime rates relative to its growing population.