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Property Crime Trends in Phillipsburg, NJ: A Decade of Change Amid Historical Roots
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Phillipsburg, New Jersey, a city with a rich history dating back to the 18th century, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased by 24.2%, from 347 to 263 incidents. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of 0.07% from 15,196 to 15,206 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 78 burglaries reported, which decreased to 35 by 2022, representing a 55.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.13 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.30 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.45% in 2010 to 0.73% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased in the city, they may have decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a downward trend. In 2010, there were 257 reported cases, which decreased to 213 by 2022, a 17.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 16.91 in 2010 to 14.01 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts increased slightly from 0.54% to 0.59% during this period, indicating a relatively consistent trend compared to state levels.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a slight increase over the years. In 2010, there were 12 reported cases, which rose to 15 by 2022, a 25% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.79 in 2010 to 0.99 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.12% to 0.23%, suggesting a faster increase in this type of crime compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively stable, with 4 reported cases in 2010 and 3 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased significantly from 0.88% in 2010 to 2.07% in 2022, indicating that arson cases in the city decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $47,141 in 2013 to $54,727 in 2022, the total property crime rate decreased from 25.51 per 1,000 residents to 17.30 per 1,000 residents. This suggests that as economic conditions improved, property crime rates tended to decrease.
Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and property crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 52% in 2013 to 59% in 2022, property crime rates showed a general downward trend, albeit with some fluctuations.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, it is estimated that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to approximately 220-240 incidents per year. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to show a slight upward trend, potentially reaching 18-20 cases annually by 2029.
In conclusion, Phillipsburg has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny thefts. The city's efforts in crime prevention and improved economic conditions appear to have contributed to this downward trend. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state arson cases warrant continued attention and targeted prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on these areas while building upon the successes in reducing other property crimes will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
