Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Philadelphia: A Tale of Contrasting Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania's largest city, is known for its rich history and cultural significance. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced notable changes in property crime rates and population. Total property crimes decreased from 57,788 in 2010 to 49,145 in 2018, but then sharply increased to 67,233 in 2022, marking a 16.34% increase over the 12-year period. Meanwhile, the population grew from 1,528,306 in 2010 to 1,567,258 in 2022, a 2.55% increase.
Burglary rates in the city showed a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 10,796 burglaries, which decreased to 6,485 by 2022, a 39.93% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.06 in 2010 to 4.14 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 42.12% in 2010 to 89.77% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary improved in Philadelphia, it improved even more dramatically in other parts of the state.
Larceny-theft incidents fluctuated over the years but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were 39,924 larceny-thefts, which rose to 48,067 in 2022, a 20.40% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 26.12 in 2010 to 30.67 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-thefts grew from 51.41% in 2010 to 91.00% in 2022, indicating that larceny-theft became increasingly concentrated in Philadelphia relative to the rest of the state.
Motor vehicle theft showed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 7,068 motor vehicle thefts, which increased dramatically to 12,681 in 2022, a 79.41% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 4.62 in 2010 to 8.09 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly, from 66.02% in 2010 to 95.27% in 2022, suggesting that this crime became even more concentrated in Philadelphia.
Arson data was only available from 2014 onward. In 2014, there were 399 arsons reported, which increased to 528 in 2022, a 32.33% rise. The arson rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.26 in 2014 to 0.34 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons increased from 44.83% in 2014 to 90.10% in 2022, indicating a significant concentration of arson cases in Philadelphia compared to the rest of the state.
There appears to be a strong correlation between property crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 11,375 per square mile in 2010 to 11,664 in 2022, overall property crime rates also increased. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $36,836 in 2013 to $56,517 in 2022, property crime rates initially decreased but then sharply increased in the later years, suggesting other factors may have influenced this trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Philadelphia could see a continued increase in overall property crimes. Motor vehicle thefts and larceny-thefts are likely to show the most significant increases, potentially reaching 18,000 and 55,000 incidents respectively. Burglaries may stabilize around 6,000 cases annually, while arson incidents could approach 600 per year.
In summary, Philadelphia has experienced a complex evolution in property crime over the past decade. While burglaries have decreased significantly, other property crimes, particularly motor vehicle theft and larceny-theft, have seen substantial increases. The city's share of state property crimes has grown across all categories, indicating a concentration of these issues within Philadelphia. These trends, coupled with population growth and increasing population density, present ongoing challenges for law enforcement and community safety initiatives in the city.
