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Property Crime Trends in Perth Amboy: Historic City Sees Significant Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Perth Amboy, located in New Jersey, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 28.9%, from 1,136 to 808 incidents. During the same period, the population increased by 10.1%, from 50,179 to 55,226 residents, indicating a general improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 268 burglaries reported, which decreased to 94 in 2022, representing a 64.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.34 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.70 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this significant decrease, the city's contribution to state-wide burglaries has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 1.44% and 2.37% of the state's total. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, its improvements are largely in line with state-wide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a downward trend. In 2010, there were 758 larceny thefts reported, which decreased to 626 in 2022, a 17.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 15.11 in 2010 to 11.34 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide larceny thefts has remained relatively consistent, ranging from 1.33% to 1.73% over the years. This indicates that the city's efforts to combat larceny theft have been somewhat effective, but there is still room for improvement.
Motor vehicle theft trends have shown more variability. In 2010, there were 110 reported cases, which decreased to 88 in 2022, a 20% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 2.19 in 2010 to 1.59 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle thefts has fluctuated between 0.89% and 2%, suggesting that the city's performance in this area has been inconsistent relative to state-wide trends.
Arson cases in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were no reported arson cases, but by 2022, this number had increased to 9. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 in 2010 to 0.16 in 2022. More notably, the city's contribution to state-wide arson cases increased dramatically from 0% in 2010 to 6.21% in 2022. This sharp increase in arson cases and the city's growing share of state-wide incidents is concerning and warrants further investigation.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $49,624 in 2013 to $55,263 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,041 to 808. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 11,002 per square mile in 2013 to 11,845 in 2022, property crime rates showed some fluctuations but generally trended downward.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. However, the rate of decrease is likely to slow. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to continue their decline, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize. The most concerning prediction is for arson cases, which are projected to continue increasing unless significant preventive measures are implemented.
In summary, Perth Amboy has made considerable progress in reducing overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the recent spike in arson cases and the city's increasing contribution to state-wide arson incidents present a significant challenge. Moving forward, the city should focus on maintaining its progress in reducing burglary and larceny theft while developing targeted strategies to address the growing arson problem. Continued monitoring of these trends and adaptation of crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining public safety and improving the overall quality of life for residents.
