Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Pelham, Alabama: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pelham, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 28%, from 457 to 329 incidents. This reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 11.2%, from 24,870 in 2010 to 27,645 in 2022, suggesting an overall improvement in property crime rates relative to population size.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 65 burglaries, which decreased to 25 by 2022, representing a 61.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 2.61 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.90 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years but remained relatively stable, moving from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries, outpacing population growth, indicates improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also experienced a decline. The number of incidents fell from 374 in 2010 to 264 in 2022, a 29.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 15.04 in 2010 to 9.55 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.51% to 0.57% over the same period. This suggests that while the city improved its larceny-theft situation, it did so at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. The number of incidents increased from 18 in 2010 to 40 in 2022, a 122% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.72 in 2010 to 1.45 in 2022. More strikingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.30% to 0.60%. This significant increase, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state incidents, suggests a growing challenge in preventing vehicle thefts within the city.
Arson data is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: 1 case in 2011 and 3 cases in 2022. This sparse data makes it difficult to establish clear trends. However, the 2022 data shows that arson accounted for 0.56% of state incidents, a notable figure given the city's size relative to the state.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in motor vehicle thefts coincides with a rise in population density, which grew from 642 people per square mile in 2010 to 713 in 2022. This could suggest that increased urbanization may be contributing to more opportunities for vehicle theft. Additionally, the overall decrease in property crimes aligns with a rise in median income, from $76,040 in 2013 to $83,836 in 2022, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of current patterns. Burglary and larceny-theft rates are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to rise if current trends persist, potentially becoming a more significant concern for law enforcement and residents.
In summary, Pelham has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite population growth. The divergent trend in motor vehicle theft, however, presents a unique challenge that may require targeted interventions. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, paint a picture of a city in transition, balancing the benefits of growth with the challenges it can bring to public safety.
