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Property Crime Trends in Pekin, Illinois: A Decade of Resilience Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pekin, located in Illinois, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 15.5%, from 843 to 712 incidents. During this same period, the city's population declined by 5.3%, from 43,219 to 40,932 residents, indicating a complex relationship between crime rates and population dynamics.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 170 burglaries, which decreased to 88 in 2022, representing a 48.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.93 in 2010 to 2.15 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.31% in 2010 to 0.53% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited a downward trend. In 2010, there were 634 larceny thefts, which decreased to 586 in 2022, a 7.6% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 14.67 in 2010 to 14.32 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.38% to 0.57% during this period, indicating that the local reduction was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed an increase over the studied period. In 2010, there were 39 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 38 in 2022, a slight decrease of 2.6%. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.90 in 2010 to 0.93 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.16% to 0.13%, suggesting that the local increase was less severe than the state average.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated but showed an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 4 arson cases, which decreased to 2 in 2022, a 50% reduction. The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.09 in 2010 to 0.05 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases decreased from 0.38% to 0.30%, indicating that the local reduction was more pronounced than the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,749 per square mile in 2010 to 2,603 in 2022, overall property crime rates also declined. Additionally, the slight increase in median income from $53,795 in 2013 to $58,108 in 2022 coincided with a general decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between income levels and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to maintain their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase. Arson cases are projected to remain low but may fluctuate due to their small numbers.
In summary, Pekin has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglary and larceny theft. However, the city's share of state property crimes has increased in some categories, indicating that local crime reductions have not kept pace with state averages. The relationship between population decline, increasing median income, and decreasing crime rates suggests that socioeconomic factors play a role in shaping the city's crime landscape. As the city moves forward, continued focus on economic development and community engagement may help sustain and potentially accelerate the positive trends in property crime reduction.
