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Property Crime Trends in Paterson, New Jersey: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Paterson, a city in New Jersey, has witnessed substantial changes in property crime rates over the past decade, coinciding with population growth. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased by 52.2%, dropping from 4,521 to 2,160. During this same period, the city's population increased by 3.5%, growing from 151,505 to 156,639 residents.
Burglary rates in Paterson have shown a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 1,491 burglaries, which decreased to 566 by 2020, representing a 62% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 10.2 in 2010 to 3.7 in 2020. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 8.51% and 11.42% during this period. This suggests that while burglaries decreased in absolute terms, the city continued to account for a significant portion of the state's burglary incidents.
Larceny theft also experienced a downward trend. In 2010, there were 2,329 larceny thefts, which reduced to 1,342 by 2020, a 42.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 15.9 in 2010 to 8.9 in 2020. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts varied between 4.07% and 6.24% during this period, indicating a relatively consistent share of the state's incidents despite the overall decrease.
Motor vehicle theft showed a significant decline as well. In 2010, there were 701 motor vehicle thefts, which dropped to 252 by 2020, a 64% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.8 in 2010 to 1.7 in 2020. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated considerably, reaching a high of 14.33% in 2015 before declining to 4.66% in 2020. This suggests that while the city made progress in reducing motor vehicle thefts, its improvements outpaced the state average in later years.
Arson cases in the city showed fluctuations over the decade. From 15 cases in 2010, the number reached a low of 3 in 2012, then peaked at 24 in 2019, before settling at 15 again in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively low throughout, ranging from 0.02 to 0.16. The city's share of state arson cases varied significantly, from a low of 0.81% in 2012 to a high of 13.41% in 2019, indicating volatile year-to-year changes in this crime category.
A notable correlation exists between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $30,733 in 2013 to $46,910 in 2020, property crimes decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property-related offenses.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 500 cases annually, while larceny theft may level off at approximately 1,200 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain below 300 cases annually. However, arson cases may continue to fluctuate unpredictably due to their volatile nature.
In summary, Paterson has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across most categories over the past decade, despite population growth. The most notable improvements were seen in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic factors play a crucial role in the city's crime landscape. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and targeted crime prevention strategies will be key to sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
