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Property Crime Trends in Paris, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Paris, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 108 in 2010 to 155 in 2019, representing a 43.5% rise. Concurrently, the population experienced a steady decline, dropping from 10,002 in 2010 to 9,262 in 2020, a decrease of 7.4%.
The burglary rate in the city showed significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 25 burglaries, which increased to 91 in 2018, a substantial 264% rise. When adjusted for population, this translates to an increase from 2.5 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 9.73 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries also grew dramatically, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2019, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends. This surge in burglaries suggests a growing concern for property security within the community.
Larceny-theft trends showed less dramatic changes but still notable fluctuations. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 71 in 2010 to 60 in 2019, a 15.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, this represents a change from 7.1 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 6.45 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.04% to 0.05% throughout most of the decade, suggesting that local trends aligned with state patterns for this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a slight upward trend. The number of incidents increased from 12 in 2010 to 15 in 2020, a 25% rise. Adjusted for population, this represents an increase from 1.2 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.62 per 1,000 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased marginally from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2020, indicating a slightly faster growth rate compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increasing trend. From no reported cases in 2010, arson incidents peaked at 5 in 2019, before dropping to 2 in 2020. The city's share of state arson cases increased significantly, from 0% in 2010 to 0.48% in 2019, before decreasing to 0.16% in 2020. This volatility suggests that arson, while not a high-volume crime, has become a more prevalent issue in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,761 per square mile in 2010 to 1,630 in 2020, overall property crime rates increased. This suggests that the declining population may have led to reduced community vigilance or fewer resources for crime prevention.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Paris may see a continued increase in burglary rates, potentially reaching up to 100-110 incidents per year if current trends persist. Larceny-theft is expected to remain relatively stable or show a slight decrease, potentially averaging around 55-65 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft may continue its gradual increase, possibly reaching 18-20 incidents per year. Arson cases are projected to remain volatile but could average 3-4 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Paris has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns over the past decade. The most striking trend has been the substantial increase in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and as a share of state totals. This, coupled with the city's declining population, suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies focusing on property security. The projected trends indicate that without intervention, certain property crimes may continue to pose significant challenges for the community in the coming years.
