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Property Crime Trends in Palos Hills: A Decade of Decline in a Growing Illinois City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Palos Hills, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 188 incidents in 2010 to 82 in 2022, representing a 56.4% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a moderate population growth of 4.2%, from 16,317 in 2010 to 16,997 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a fluctuating but generally decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries reported, which decreased to 17 in 2022. When adjusted for population, this represents a decline from 1.41 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.00 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022, suggesting a potentially disproportionate improvement compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw a dramatic decrease over the period. In 2010, there were 158 larceny thefts reported, which fell to 54 in 2022, a 65.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 9.68 in 2010 to 3.18 in 2022. Despite this significant drop, the city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.09% to 0.05% over the period.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents decreased from 7 in 2010 to 6 in 2014, but then increased to 13 in 2019 before dropping to 11 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.43 in 2010 to 0.65 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a slight worsening relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only one incident reported in most years from 2010 to 2014, and no reported cases from 2015 to 2022. This represents a positive trend, with the arson rate per 1,000 residents dropping from 0.06 in 2010 to 0 in recent years. The city's share of state arsons also decreased from 0.10% to 0% over this period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a period of relative stability in median income, which increased from $64,041 in 2013 to $66,812 in 2022. This suggests that economic factors may have played a role in the reduction of property crimes. Additionally, the city maintained a high rate of owner-occupied housing, consistently around 80% throughout the period, which could contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, we might expect to see total property crimes in Palos Hills fall to around 70-75 incidents per year by 2029. This projection assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively stable.
In summary, Palos Hills has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade, with substantial reductions in burglary and larceny theft rates. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while experiencing population growth is particularly noteworthy. These trends, combined with stable economic indicators and high home ownership rates, suggest a positive outlook for community safety in Palos Hills in the coming years.
