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Property Crime Trends in Ozark, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ozark, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced significant fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable overall decrease of 8.63% from 452 in 2010 to 491 in 2022. During this same timeframe, the population declined slightly by 3.14%, from 17,978 in 2010 to 17,414 in 2022, adding an interesting dimension to the crime rate analysis.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were only 5 reported burglaries, but this number peaked at 184 in 2014 before dropping to 65 in 2022. This represents a 64.67% decrease from the 2014 peak. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.28 in 2010 to 3.73 in 2022, indicating a rise in burglary incidents relative to the population. The city's share of state burglaries also increased significantly, from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.57% in 2022, suggesting a growing contribution to statewide burglary statistics despite the overall decrease in numbers.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, demonstrated considerable variability. From 426 incidents in 2010, it reached a high of 686 in 2013 before declining to 389 in 2022, marking an 8.69% decrease over the 12-year period. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 23.70 in 2010 to 22.34 in 2022, indicating a relatively stable trend when accounting for population changes. Notably, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.58% in 2010 to 0.83% in 2022, suggesting an increasing significance in statewide larceny-theft statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an upward trend, increasing from 21 incidents in 2010 to 37 in 2022, a 76.19% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.17 in 2010 to 2.12 in 2022, indicating an increase in motor vehicle theft relative to the population. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose significantly, from 0.35% in 2010 to 0.55% in 2022, highlighting its growing contribution to this crime category at the state level.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only three years of reported incidents. In 2011, there were 2 cases, followed by 2 cases in 2021, and 6 cases in 2022. This represents a 200% increase from 2011 to 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.11 in 2011 to 0.34 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arson cases also rose dramatically from 0.36% in 2011 to 1.13% in 2022, indicating a significant increase in the city's contribution to statewide arson incidents.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in population density from 527 per square mile in 2010 to 510 in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible relationship between population density and crime rates. Additionally, the median income increased from $44,239 in 2013 to $49,939 in 2022, which may have contributed to the reduction in certain types of property crimes, particularly larceny-theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. However, individual categories may show divergent patterns. Burglary and larceny-theft are projected to continue declining, while motor vehicle theft and arson may see slight increases. These predictions are based on historical trends and should be interpreted cautiously due to the potential impact of unforeseen factors.
In summary, Ozark has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends from 2010 to 2022. While overall property crime has decreased, individual categories show varied patterns. The city's increasing share of state crime statistics in multiple categories, despite its population decline, warrants attention. These trends, combined with demographic shifts, paint a nuanced picture of the city's changing crime landscape and its position within the broader context of Alabama's crime statistics.
