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Property Crime Trends in Oxford, NC: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Oxford, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade, accompanied by fluctuations in population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 72.1%, from 674 to 188 incidents. During this same period, the population saw a slight decline of 2.8%, from 15,184 to 14,765 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decrease over time. In 2010, there were 264 burglaries, which dropped to just 23 in 2022, representing a 91.3% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 17.4 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.6 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also declined significantly, from 0.49% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022. This trend suggests a marked improvement in residential and commercial security within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have also seen a considerable reduction. In 2010, there were 382 cases, which decreased to 150 in 2022, a 60.7% decline. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 25.2 in 2010 to 10.2 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts decreased from 0.29% to 0.13% over the same period. This downward trend indicates improved property protection and potentially more effective law enforcement strategies.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable but ultimately show a decrease. In 2010, there were 28 motor vehicle thefts, which reduced to 15 in 2022, a 46.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.8 in 2010 to 1.0 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.27% to 0.10%, suggesting that the reduction in this crime type outpaced the state average.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but generally decreased over time. From 5 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 1 in 2022, an 80% reduction. The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.33 to 0.07 over this period. The city's proportion of state arsons varied significantly, from 0.49% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, with several years of higher percentages in between, indicating a volatile but ultimately improving situation.
Analysis of correlations reveals interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $45,399 in 2013 to $46,939 in 2022, property crime rates declined significantly. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the Black population percentage increased from 41% in 2013 to 48% in 2022, and the White population decreased from 50% to 38%, property crime rates continued to fall, challenging potential stereotypes about race and crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trends, we might expect total property crimes to further reduce by approximately 15-20%, potentially reaching around 150-160 incidents annually by 2029.
In summary, Oxford has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. This improvement has occurred despite slight population decreases and significant demographic shifts. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a crucial role in this positive trend. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community engagement could further solidify these gains in public safety.
