Motor vehicle theft trends present a concerning picture. The number of incidents increased from 84 in 2010 to 264 in 2022, a substantial 214.3% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.28 to 3.71, a 189.8% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also rose significantly from 1.9% to 6.35%, suggesting that this crime type has become a more pressing issue for the community relative to the rest of the state.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but show an overall increase. The number of arsons rose from 12 in 2010 to 14 in 2022, a 16.7% increase. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.18 to 0.20, a 7.9% rise. The city's share of state arsons grew substantially from 2.88% to 10.14%, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in the city compared to the rest of Kentucky.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in motor vehicle thefts appears to coincide with a slight decrease in homeownership rates, which fell from 62% in 2013 to 60% in 2022. This could suggest a potential link between property ownership and certain types of property crime. Additionally, the gradual increase in median income from $50,365 in 2013 to $56,544 in 2022 does not seem to have significantly impacted overall property crime rates, indicating that other factors may be more influential in driving crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of some existing patterns. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trajectory, potentially reaching around 200 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is predicted to stabilize around 1,500 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft, if current trends persist, could increase to approximately 300 incidents per year. Arson cases are projected to remain relatively stable, with slight fluctuations around the current levels.

In summary, Owensboro has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While burglary and larceny-theft rates have decreased, motor vehicle theft and arson have become more prominent issues. The city's increasing share of state crime figures across all categories suggests that targeted interventions may be necessary to address these trends. As Owensboro continues to grow, balancing economic development with effective crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining and improving the quality of life for its residents.