Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. The number of incidents decreased from 15 in 2010 to 6 in 2022, a 60% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.97 in 2010 to 0.39 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, from 0.29% in 2010 to a high of 0.85% in 2014, before dropping to 0.12% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle thefts decreased locally, the city's contribution to state totals varied considerably over the years.

Arson incidents remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. The number of arsons ranged from 2 to 5 per year, with 3 reported in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained low, peaking at 0.33 in 2016 and ending at 0.20 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arsons varied, ranging from 0.52% to 1.97%, ending at 1.05% in 2022. This indicates that while arson incidents were infrequent, they still contributed a noticeable portion to state totals.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $47,259 in 2013 to $59,418 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and reduced property crime rates. As owner occupancy increased from 64% in 2013 to 68% in 2022, property crime rates generally declined.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates for Ottawa. By 2029, which is five years from now, the model predicts that total property crimes could decrease by approximately 15-20% from 2022 levels, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are expected to see the most significant reductions, while motor vehicle theft and arson rates may stabilize at their current low levels.

In conclusion, Ottawa has demonstrated a generally positive trend in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The city's contribution to state crime totals has remained relatively stable for most categories, suggesting that local crime reduction efforts have been effective. As the city continues to experience modest population growth and improvements in economic indicators, it is well-positioned to maintain or further improve its property crime statistics in the coming years.