Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Oroville: A Decade of Change Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Oroville, a city in California, has witnessed significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade, coinciding with modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Oroville decreased by 29.6%, dropping from 1,011 to 712 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 8.9%, increasing from 17,441 to 18,992 residents.
Burglary rates in Oroville have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 291 burglaries, which decreased to 101 in 2022, representing a 65.3% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 16.7 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 5.3 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.18% in 2016 and 2017, before dropping to 0.09% in 2022. This significant decrease in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny theft trends have also shown a downward trajectory. In 2010, there were 632 larceny thefts, which decreased to 408 in 2022, a 35.4% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 36.2 in 2010 to 21.5 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.07% and 0.17% over the years, settling at 0.08% in 2022. This decline in larceny thefts could indicate improved community awareness or enhanced retail security measures.
Contrary to the decreasing trends in burglary and larceny theft, motor vehicle theft has seen an increase. In 2010, there were 88 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 203 in 2022, a 130.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 5.0 in 2010 to 10.7 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022. This upward trend in motor vehicle thefts suggests a need for targeted prevention strategies in this specific area of property crime.
Arson incidents have fluctuated over the years but show a slight increase overall. In 2010, there were 16 arson cases, which increased to 17 in 2022, a 6.3% rise. The arson rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, changing from 0.92 in 2010 to 0.89 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.27% in 2022, indicating that arson remains a persistent issue relative to state trends.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $39,334 in 2013 to $43,228 in 2022, overall property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. However, the models indicate that motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, while burglary and larceny theft are likely to stabilize or decrease further. Arson incidents are predicted to remain relatively constant but may fluctuate year to year.
In summary, Oroville has seen a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a growing challenge. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a role in further reducing criminal activity. As the city moves forward, focusing on strategies to combat motor vehicle theft while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be crucial for enhancing overall public safety and community well-being.
