Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. In 2010, there were 11 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 20 by 2020, an 81.8% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.33 in 2010 to 2.64 in 2020. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2020. This upward trend in motor vehicle thefts, particularly in recent years, may suggest a need for enhanced vehicle security measures and targeted law enforcement efforts.

Arson incidents were sporadic and infrequent in the city. Only three years in the decade reported arson cases: 2 in 2012, 1 in 2017, and 1 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.25, 0.13, and 0.13, respectively. The city's contribution to state arson cases was highest in 2012 at 0.19%, dropping to 0.16% in 2019. The low frequency of arson cases makes it challenging to identify a clear trend, but it suggests that arson is not a persistent problem in the area.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in overall property crime rates coincides with a gradual increase in median income, from $62,137 in 2013 to $71,104 in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime. Additionally, the city experienced a shift in racial demographics, with the white population decreasing from 74% in 2013 to 54% in 2022, while the black and Hispanic populations increased. This demographic change occurred alongside the overall decrease in property crimes, indicating that the city's changing racial composition did not negatively impact crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in burglaries and larceny thefts. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise if current trends persist. The sporadic nature of arson incidents makes long-term predictions unreliable for this category.

In summary, Orange Park has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, with significant reductions in burglaries and modest decreases in larceny thefts. The increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. These trends, occurring alongside demographic shifts and economic improvements, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing crime rates in the city. The overall positive trajectory in property crime reduction positions Orange Park as a community that has made strides in enhancing public safety, though continued vigilance will be necessary to address emerging challenges and maintain this progress.