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Property Crime Trends in Orange Beach: A Coastal City's Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Orange Beach, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total property crime incidents, with a notable decrease from 330 in 2011 to 206 in 2022, representing a 37.58% reduction. During this same period, the population grew significantly from 7,070 in 2010 to 9,401 in 2022, a 32.97% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a consistent downward trend. In 2011, there were 61 burglaries, which decreased to just 16 in 2022, a substantial 73.77% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 8.44 in 2011 to 1.70 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.16% in 2011 to 0.08% in 2018, but then rising to 0.14% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, its improvements may be outpacing those of the state as a whole in recent years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a decrease, though not as dramatic as burglary. From 255 incidents in 2011, it dropped to 182 in 2022, a 28.63% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 35.31 in 2011 to 19.36 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.29% in 2011 to 0.39% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime may be decreasing more slowly in the city compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft has remained relatively stable in absolute numbers, with 14 incidents in 2011 and 8 in 2022. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 1.94 in 2011 to 0.85 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has fluctuated but shown an overall increase from 0.17% in 2011 to 0.12% in 2022, suggesting that this crime type may be becoming a more significant issue relative to the state.
Arson data for the city is limited, with most years showing no reported incidents or data unavailable. The only year with a reported figure is 2011, which had zero arsons. This lack of data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 490 people per square mile in 2011 to 638 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that the growing urban density has not led to an increase in property crime, contrary to what might be expected. Additionally, there appears to be a positive correlation between rising median income (from $70,734 in 2013 to $87,552 in 2022) and decreasing property crime rates, indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends over the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, we might expect to see burglary rates stabilize around 1.5 incidents per 1,000 residents, larceny-theft potentially dropping to about 17 per 1,000 residents, and motor vehicle theft remaining below 1 per 1,000 residents.
In summary, Orange Beach has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement has occurred alongside population growth and increasing median income, suggesting a complex interplay between demographic changes and crime rates. The city's evolving share of state crime statistics indicates that while progress has been made, there is still room for improvement, especially in addressing larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft relative to state averages.
