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Property Crime Trends in Opelousas: Cultural Heritage Meets Changing Crime Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Opelousas, located in Louisiana, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population changes. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 30%, from 1,364 to 955 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased slightly by 3.9%, from 25,102 to 24,120 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 370 burglaries, which decreased to 256 in 2022, representing a 30.8% reduction. When accounting for population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 14.7 in 2010 to 10.6 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this overall decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 1.79% in 2010 to 2.24% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny theft also experienced a downward trend, though less pronounced than burglary. In 2010, there were 931 larceny thefts, which decreased to 592 in 2022, a 36.4% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 37.1 in 2010 to 24.5 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts decreased slightly from 1.93% in 2010 to 1.24% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in larceny theft in the city was somewhat in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a more complex pattern. While there were 63 motor vehicle thefts in 2010, this number increased to 107 in 2022, representing a 69.8% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.5 in 2010 to 4.4 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts nearly doubled from 1.28% in 2010 to 2.22% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime has become a growing concern relative to other areas in the state.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increasing trend. In 2011 (the earliest year with available data), there was 1 reported arson case. By 2022, this number had increased to 6, representing a 500% increase. The arson rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.04 in 2011 to 0.25 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons increased dramatically from 0.26% in 2011 to 6.25% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a significantly more prevalent issue in the city compared to the rest of the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $26,858 in 2013 to $46,286 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,215 to 955 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. However, the rate of decrease is expected to slow. Motor vehicle thefts and arsons may continue to pose challenges, potentially increasing slightly or stabilizing at current levels. Burglary and larceny theft are projected to continue their downward trends, albeit at a slower pace.
In summary, Opelousas has made significant progress in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and arsons presents new challenges for law enforcement and community safety initiatives. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing property crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a crucial role in further crime reduction efforts.
