Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a general downward trend. From 62 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 20 in 2022, a 67.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 16.55 in 2010 to 4.76 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained consistently low at 0.01% or less, suggesting that local efforts to combat this crime have been relatively effective compared to state-wide trends.

Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuations without a clear trend. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 5 in 2014, then varied between 0 and 4 incidents annually, ending with 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.27 in 2010 to a high of 1.38 in 2014, settling at 0.71 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01%, indicating that this crime is not a significant issue relative to state-wide occurrences.

Arson has been a rare occurrence in the city, with only one reported incident in 2015. This single case represented 0.04% of state arsons that year, an unusually high percentage given the city's size, but likely an anomaly due to the low overall numbers.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $72,594 in 2013 to $122,534 in 2022, total property crimes generally decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing the majority (around 60-65%), and no strong correlation was observed between racial demographics and crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in the city may stabilize or slightly decrease. Burglary rates might fluctuate but are expected to remain below 20 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is predicted to continue its downward trend, potentially dropping to around 15-18 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, averaging 2-3 incidents annually.

In summary, Olmos Park has demonstrated a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft. The city's crime trends appear to be influenced by rising median incomes and population growth, while maintaining a consistently low share of state-wide crime statistics. These trends suggest that local law enforcement strategies and improving economic conditions have positively impacted public safety in this small Texas community.